By Teddy Greenstein
A few weeks after flirting with the NCAA tournament bubble, the Wildcats might need to win their first-round game in the Big Ten tournament to nail down an NIT bid. Or a victory over Indiana on Thursday might not even be enough.
"They're certainly on the NIT radar," NIT selection committee chairman C.M. Newton told the Tribune on Tuesday, "but they're not a lock. We don't know yet who they're going to be compared to."
In other words, the Wildcats' fate could be determined by how many small-conference teams make the NCAA tournament field, pushing bubble teams to the 32-team NIT.
Last year Northwestern earned an NIT bid (losing at Tulsa in the first round) after a 17-13 season and an RPI of 78 after going 8-10 in the rugged Big Ten. This Wildcat team has an RPI of 117 that would take another hit if the Wildcats can't beat 10-20 Indiana.
A few weeks after flirting with the NCAA tournament bubble, the Wildcats might need to win their first-round game in the Big Ten tournament to nail down an NIT bid. Or a victory over Indiana on Thursday might not even be enough.
"They're certainly on the NIT radar," NIT selection committee chairman C.M. Newton told the Tribune on Tuesday, "but they're not a lock. We don't know yet who they're going to be compared to."
In other words, the Wildcats' fate could be determined by how many small-conference teams make the NCAA tournament field, pushing bubble teams to the 32-team NIT.
Last year Northwestern earned an NIT bid (losing at Tulsa in the first round) after a 17-13 season and an RPI of 78 after going 8-10 in the rugged Big Ten. This Wildcat team has an RPI of 117 that would take another hit if the Wildcats can't beat 10-20 Indiana.
Newton said the eight-member NIT selection committee uses the RPI
"as a guide. We also use Sagarin rather heavily, or at least I do."
That's good for Northwestern, which is 79th in the Sagarin ratings, 19 spots behind NCAA bubble team Illinois.
"Ultimately, it's an eye test," said Newton, a former Alabama and Vanderbilt coach and Kentucky athletic director. "We look at the total resume: What have they done, how have they played against teams in our field, how have they played away from home. Because ultimately they will have to go on the road some time in our tournament.
"Then I put my coaching hat on: If we have four teams that look alike, I ask myself: Which team would I least want to coach against?
"Northwestern has had a very good year and is a good club. It's a shame they have struggled of recent date."
The Wildcats have lost five of their last eight -- and four came against the bottom third (Penn State, Indiana and Iowa) of the Big Ten.
Two other signs that Northwestern (19-12, 7-11 Big Ten) might need to at least beat Indiana to get an NIT berth: Three seasons ago, Iowa did not merit an invitation after going 17-14 (9-7 Big Ten) with an RPI of 96. Last year, Vanderbilt didn't get the NIT call after going 19-12 and 8-8 in the SEC with an RPI of 95.
The NIT field will be revealed at about 8 p.m. Sunday.
If Northwestern gets snubbed, it would probably merit an invitation to the 16-team College Basketball Invitational, won last year by Oregon State.
Invited teams have to pay as much as $60,000 to lock up a spot in the CBI, but indications are that NU officials would write the check, even if the school has to take a loss.
That's good for Northwestern, which is 79th in the Sagarin ratings, 19 spots behind NCAA bubble team Illinois.
"Ultimately, it's an eye test," said Newton, a former Alabama and Vanderbilt coach and Kentucky athletic director. "We look at the total resume: What have they done, how have they played against teams in our field, how have they played away from home. Because ultimately they will have to go on the road some time in our tournament.
"Then I put my coaching hat on: If we have four teams that look alike, I ask myself: Which team would I least want to coach against?
"Northwestern has had a very good year and is a good club. It's a shame they have struggled of recent date."
The Wildcats have lost five of their last eight -- and four came against the bottom third (Penn State, Indiana and Iowa) of the Big Ten.
Two other signs that Northwestern (19-12, 7-11 Big Ten) might need to at least beat Indiana to get an NIT berth: Three seasons ago, Iowa did not merit an invitation after going 17-14 (9-7 Big Ten) with an RPI of 96. Last year, Vanderbilt didn't get the NIT call after going 19-12 and 8-8 in the SEC with an RPI of 95.
The NIT field will be revealed at about 8 p.m. Sunday.
If Northwestern gets snubbed, it would probably merit an invitation to the 16-team College Basketball Invitational, won last year by Oregon State.
Invited teams have to pay as much as $60,000 to lock up a spot in the CBI, but indications are that NU officials would write the check, even if the school has to take a loss.
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