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Illinois, Notre Dame riding NCAA bubble

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By Chris Hine

This time of year, Joe Lunardi's phone rings off the hook. And no, it isn't Scarlett Johansson calling (Lunardi, NCAA "bracketologist" for ESPN.com, recently told the Tribune that he had a better chance of getting a date with the actress than Northwestern did of getting an NCAA tournament bid).

Rather, the calls come from fans and journalists wondering who's going to be in the tournament and who's out. So Lunardi held a conference call Wednesday to give his thoughts on as many teams as he could, and Illinois and Notre Dame figured prominently.

"You got two teams going in opposite directions ready to collide right around the edge of the at-large pool," Lunardi said.
Illinois (18-12, 10-7 Big Ten), which lost 73-57 at Ohio State on Tuesday, needs to pick up another win to get in, Lunardi said. That will not be easy, considering Illinois' next two games both are likely to be against Wisconsin -- in the final regular-season game Sunday and as the likely No. 4-5 seed matchup in the Big Ten tournament.

"I think they need one more win somewhere," Lunardi said. "That's my gut, to be maybe a 10, 11 seed. I actually think they can be pretty good."

Lunardi said he could not understand why Illinois' RPI (72, according to realtimerpi.com) was so low, considering the Illini have defeated four teams in the top 25 of the RPI (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt and Clemson, who just jumped up to No. 25).

"I'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's ever missed with four wins like that," Lunardi said. "I still don't understand completely why their RPI is so bad, but I don't think it's going to matter. The committee has evolved to stage where that wouldn't solely keep them out."

As for Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8 Big East), Lunardi would like to see what happens Wednesday night in its game against Connecticut before offering his prediction.

"At this time last year, a lot of the big-name Big East bubble teams were playing their way out, and the league was unhappy with what it got," Lunardi said. "This year, it's kind of going the other way some and if they got in, it could be nine."

Right now, he placed Notre Dame's chances of making the NCAA tournament at "40 or 45 percent."

"They will have earned it the hard way, down the stretch, against some of the best teams on their schedule and without (Luke) Harangody," Lunardi said.

1 Comments

I hope Illinois doesn't make it so Guenther finally wisens up to Weber. And just imagine, the AD could have hired Matta after Self left!

Steve Dillard on March 3, 2010 2:23 PM

Perfect. The two whiniest college fan bases lumped together.

The open-mouthed stare of Weber and the bad mock turtlenecks for Brey.

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