It was last spring that K.C. Joyner, the Football Scientist, drew the ire of Bears fans when he wrote that Jay Cutler would remind them of Rex Grossman when it came to his decision making.
Joyner was flogged across the Internet for daring to make the comparison. Sixteen games and a league-high 26 interceptions later, it's not only fair but it's accurate to point out that Joyner was on to something.
But Cutler's propensity to throw the ball into spots he shouldn't is a topic for another day. Joyner, who has his own Web site, The Football Scientist, also does work for ESPN.com and he weighed in Friday on the Bears' blockbuster addition of defensive end Julius Peppers.
Does the premier pass rusher take too many plays off? It's a subject that Vaughn McClure tackled in the Saturday edition of the Tribune. Peppers wasn't peppered with questions about it Friday, but the topic did surface at Halas Hall.
Photo: Julius Peppers. (Chris Walker / Tribune)
"I feel like that one thing about me taking plays off, somebody said that when I was playing in college and it's followed me throughout my career," he said. "If we had the film on and we were watching it and you wanted to pick one person out that was taking a play off on a particular play, you could pick anybody. It's not only me. I'm not the only one who's doing it, but I'm the only one who people are saying it about. I mean sometimes when you're on the field you get tired. If I'm not playing as hard on play 66 as I was on play No. 1, then come on."
The Charlotte Observer did an analysis of Peppers during the 2007 season when he had a career-low 2.5 sacks. They charted him and took note of plays that, in the estimation of the authors, Peppers wasn't making a difference. It infuriated him.
It wasn't fair, not according to Joyner. He addressed the topic in his book "Scientific Football 2008" and covered it again Friday online for ESPN.
"The Carolina pass rushing metrics were bad across the board and the one person who has taken more grief than other for this is Julius Peppers. Fans on the ESPN.com SportsNation chats have taken to slamming Peppers for his lack of effort and many media reports either imply or directly make that same assertion.
"What I don't understand is why Peppers isn't given a bit more leeway than this. For years, Peppers was one of the hardest working defensive linemen in the league and that didn't change last season.
"What did change is that Peppers had an offseason illness that caused him to lose a lot of weight. That very well may have been why he lacked energy but instead of leaning on that explanation, many have jumped to the conclusion that he suddenly turned into another overpaid, lazy athlete. All I can say to this is that most of the time, hard working players don't suddenly become lazy."
Joyner notes that Peppers rebounded to make 9 ½ one-on-one sacks, which he defines as sacks in which a rusher must defeat his blocker and sack the quarterback in less than three seconds. Peppers had seven in less than 2.7 seconds.
The conclusion by Joyner? The Bears didn't roll the dice on a player who gives effort when he wants to and takes time off on occasion. Does he have a Jared Allen motor? Maybe not. Who does? Did they pay a bum? No.
Register with Chicago Tribune and receive Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks newsletters for free. 
When sports news breaks, be the first to know. (To get alerts on a mobile device, text CHISPORTS to 31286.). 
Get our updates on 
meant 3-13 on that last one
do you people actually read the article? or do you just respond to the headline and look at pictures?
It clearly states that Peppers is a good acquisition and that the media and uninformed fans are to blame for the scrutiny on JPs performance.
Pep will do just fine, the line will be better with him, you will all see in time.
I love my Bears and always support them and cheer for them to win, but hate it when they are successful due to all the idiot bandwagon jumpers (cubs fans) that ruin it for the rest of the die hard fans who still went to games when we were 13-3. Where were all you jerks then? probably pissin about the cubs and talking on your cell phone at the game trying to be seen on TV. GO AWAY! DON'T got to training camp this year (or any other year) and take up needlepoint.
Besides, shouldn't you be getting ready for the Blackhawks bandwagon?
Keep out of the South-Side!
Skin Fan on March 6, 2010 5:50 PM
This is the exact kind of player the Redskins usually sign.
//////////////////
They are somewhere between the Skins and the Raiders right now. Either way, this does not look promising, but it is fun to read the people who get fooled by names instead of quality.
Slow news day, huh?
Brad - how many starting DEs don't "take plays off". Way to try and start a controversy.
Benny stfu you stupid son of a bitch.Marinelli was the D line coach/ast head coach on the tampa bucs in 03 when they had pro bowlers simeon rice and warren sapp and won the super bowl they also had the most sacks than anybody else in the nfl under marinelli.He is great with defense he was about to get the bucs d coordinator position but they gave it to monte kiffin and marinelli went to the lions.You're just an idiot
Da Bears got a GOOD player, who will be subpar when the MORON gets him. MORONelli is so bad, Lovie in his desparation was dumb enough to promote this jerk. Peppers aint pounding NO ROCK for anyone!!!
Richard Dent was also constantly accused of taking plays off during his career but so what? When big plays, sacks or turnovers were needed, there was #95... let's give Peppers a chance.
I think the sportswriters cause so much crap in Chicago! I think calling them sportswriters is a misnomer. They are writers...fictional. Political wannabes in wishiwas clothes. Then the sheeple of Chicago listen to this crap, and we are off to the races. For the past two or three months, I am watching you (from Iraq) writing about Peppers, like you did about Cutler. Like the second coming...then, just when all the moves are in place, we get the 180! You are not entertaining. You are obviously well placed. And to believe what you write, it is already a done deal about Lovie. Please start writing about the evils of the Taliban, or the history of Saddam...or how dope is connected to the 'terrorists'. Let your creative juices have a ball, and quit writing Grims Fairy Tales about the Bears. The rest of you idiots, start reading books...let the team play the game. We mere mortals lack the physical size and will to play, so we do the next best thing. We watch. Let's all just watch!
Julius Peppers = Alonzo Spellmann
I guess the people here bashing Peppers forgot to actually read the article. "Rocket-man and Skins Fan" I'm looking in your direction.
"Skin Fan on March 6, 2010 5:50 PM
This is the exact kind of player the Redskins usually sign."
What do you mean by that?
I'm a transplanted Bears fan living in Charlotte. I can appreciate the apprehension my fellow Bears fans have back home in Chicago, but it's unfounded. Since I don't like to pay $400 for Sunday Ticket, I've watched the Panthers for the past 8 years. "Pepp" is a beast. The man is an athletic freak. He's worth every penny. And now that his only job is to sack the quarter back, I wouldn't be surprised if he approached 20 sacks this season.
Chicago has the WOAT fans.Pathetic.
WOAT = Worse of all time.
This thread is so full of world class stupid!
TrueBearFan, your post is clearly not one of those full of stupid.
The rest of you can figure it out from there.
The Bears fans sound like Cubs fans.
Another over the hill, over paid player, that will do nothing than other drive ticket and cable prices up.
good point on jared allen, creighton. williams shut him down in our second meeting with him. and all these fans crying about money. shut up! since when did the mccaskey's checkbook become our concern. there is no salary cap, so who cares if we overspend, in an honest attempt to make the team better. you people act like its your money, shut it!
Bears fans here 1 week ago:
"WHAAAAAAAAA THE BEARS ARE SO CHEAP. WOE IS US!"
Bears fans today:
"WHAAAAAAAAA WE OVERPAID FOR PEPPERS. WOE IS US!"
I don't get you "so called bears fans"!! You guys whine about how poorly our season went and when the Bears actually go out and do something to make the team better you whine about how we spent too much money on him! Do you fans actually want to see a winning team on the football field or do you guys just want to see another season of mediocrity? I know that I fully support the bears win, lose or draw. I was born a chicago bears fan and i'm going to die a chicago bears fan! Why don't you "so called bears fans just switch teams and root for the viqueens!! We true bears fans don't need fans like you.
Hey "chicagofan" and others Alan Page was 30 when he came in to Chicago and I think he did pretty good. You talk a good game get your facts straight before you spout them out your "blow hole."
The problem we Chicago Fans should be worried about is the history of free agency, especially with players over 30. While there may be players over 30 who have come in and played a complimentary role, there has NEVER, EVER, been a player over 30 who has come in and played even close to the level they previously played at. We may be able to expect 8 - 10 sacks per year for maybe, 2-3 years, but I would not expect more. If this is the case, is he worth the money, and would that money have been better spent adding depth to the team.
We probably could have gotten similar production for half hte price with Kampman.
Hey Biggs: SHUT THE HELL UP
Leave it to the stupid Chicago sports (non)writers to put a negative spin on this signing already. Got news for you Brad. All players take a play or two off. This guys will dominate in Chicago. Start writing something worthwhile instead of worthless.
Allen actually gets tired at the end of games and is less effective at the end of the season most guys are. Peppers problem is for a guy with his talent his sack totals are little low for 6-6 290 pound end with 4.68 speed. So are his pressure numbers. Their good but with his talent level you would think a little better. However Peppers spent his career playing two gap, he will have much less responsibility in the Bears one gap scheme and will be playing more downhill on first and second down. His numbers should go up in the Bears one gap style. His numbers should be very similar if not better than a healthy Freeney. I'm looking for 14-16 sacks, 35-40 pressures, and 15 hits. If he is healthy I excpect a career year. I also look forward to him sitting on Aaron Rodgers head as TJ Lang tries to block Peppers and poor Stafford who is going to protect him Backus? Seattle doesn't have a LT, Buffalo don't have one, everyone on the eagles is injured or Old, Washington just lost their LT, so Peppers should have a fat year depending on who teams draft. Plus he gets to play against the Panthers.
7 sacks in less than 2.7 seconds? Basically that says that anything deeper than a 3 step drop, and he is on the QB. If he does that 7 times this year, it will be a phenomenal year. He will be our most effective pass rusher since Dent.
Heck, everybody has off games. Tommie Harris has had 3 off years, and Ogunleye had 4 sacks in 4 weeks, and only got 2 the rest of the way until he got hurt. Alex Brown has one great game a year, and basically disappears from a pass rush perspective for a month at a time. Peppers having a bad run is very different. A bad run for him is still 2-3 sacks in a month. But when he gets hot, he can rack up 2-3 a week for a few weeks in a row.
If he dogs it, we are hosed....but I don't think he will dog it.
This is the exact kind of player the Redskins usually sign.
Nobody questions whether he takes plays off, it the weeks off that he takes that gets under peoples skin. And now that he has all of this guaranteed money, I don't any reason it will diminish going forward.
I tink the bears are going to regret this signing.