By Brad BiggsThe Bears have not been good in third-and-short situations over the last two seasons and where short-yardage runs matter most, the Bears were particularly bad in 2009.
Bill Barnwell, the managing editor of Football Outsiders, wrote an article for ESPN.com where he detailed the struggles of LaDainian Tomlinson near the goal line and pointed out that the 12 rushing touchdowns he had last season are not necessarily a sign that the future Hall of Famer will be automatic near the end zone for his new team, the New York Jets. The Jets are using him to replace ex-Bear Thomas Jones.
Barnwell also explains the formula used for determining the success of a back at the goal line. Obviously, there are a multitude of variables in play -- he points out the offensive line did not play well for the Bears last season -- but what Football Outsides has done is chart every carry by a running back inside the five-yard line from 10 seasons, 2000 through 2009.
Photo: Matt Forte was well below the league average on short-yardage runs last season. (Glenn Sweeney Jr./AP)
They were separated by down and distance and the percentage of
touchdowns from each situation was determined. It was found that backs
score 52.9 percent of the time on first-and-goal runs from the one-yard
line. Runs on first-and-goal from the three produced a touchdown 31.1
percent of the time (bear with us through the math here).
With the baseline values, Barnwell was able to determine an expected touchdown total for each player and determine if he was above or below league average. The Bears were far below league average. As Barnwell notes, Matt Forte had 19 carries inside the five last year and produced two touchdowns. The expected total was 7.7. According to the research, it was the worst figure of the decade for a running back.
But wait, there's hope. Remember, Barnwell cited the poor performance of the offensive line and said that backs with a performance of minus 3.0 or worse (Forte was minus 5.7) generally are very near league average the next season. Forte has six touchdowns in short-yardage situations as a rookie in 2008, just a notch below the 6.8 that were expected.
The sample size for the goal-line runs and the third-and-one chances isn't big. But the Bears haven't produced in short-yardage situations like they need to and the thinking was quarterback Jay Cutler would help in that area. With the new offense, surely the Bears will be looking to improve.
The release of fullback Jason McKie on Tuesday was an interesting move because it's not like Mike Martz hasn't had a fullback in his playbook in the past. In fact, he had a big one, a very big one with the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, where the Rams utilized James Hodgins, a 6-1, 274-pound hammer in the backfield. Martz would use two-back sets and the fullback would handle kick-out blocks.
Whether they move to more of an H-back, plan to use a tight end in the backfield from time to time, go out and get a bigger blocking back (McKie was listed at 5-11, 245), the Bears have to improve their running game and they must get better in short-yardage situations.
The Bears were 18-for-28 (64.2 percent) on third-and-one last season. That ranked 20th in the league and that was worse than the 68 percent (17-for-25) they had on third-and-one in 2008.
Worse, the Bears were were 14-for-22 (63.6 percent) on runs on third-and-one and that ranked 23rd in the league.
Props are due for their effectiveness on fourth-and-one, though. They converted 7-of-9 (77.8 percent) to rank 11th in the league. The Bears were 4-for-4 on fourth-and-one runs, one of seven teams to be successful on all fourth-and-one carries. Miami (7), Cleveland (6), Atlanta (5), Buffalo and Oakland (3) and Cincinnati (2) were the others.
With the baseline values, Barnwell was able to determine an expected touchdown total for each player and determine if he was above or below league average. The Bears were far below league average. As Barnwell notes, Matt Forte had 19 carries inside the five last year and produced two touchdowns. The expected total was 7.7. According to the research, it was the worst figure of the decade for a running back.
But wait, there's hope. Remember, Barnwell cited the poor performance of the offensive line and said that backs with a performance of minus 3.0 or worse (Forte was minus 5.7) generally are very near league average the next season. Forte has six touchdowns in short-yardage situations as a rookie in 2008, just a notch below the 6.8 that were expected.
The sample size for the goal-line runs and the third-and-one chances isn't big. But the Bears haven't produced in short-yardage situations like they need to and the thinking was quarterback Jay Cutler would help in that area. With the new offense, surely the Bears will be looking to improve.
The release of fullback Jason McKie on Tuesday was an interesting move because it's not like Mike Martz hasn't had a fullback in his playbook in the past. In fact, he had a big one, a very big one with the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, where the Rams utilized James Hodgins, a 6-1, 274-pound hammer in the backfield. Martz would use two-back sets and the fullback would handle kick-out blocks.
Whether they move to more of an H-back, plan to use a tight end in the backfield from time to time, go out and get a bigger blocking back (McKie was listed at 5-11, 245), the Bears have to improve their running game and they must get better in short-yardage situations.
The Bears were 18-for-28 (64.2 percent) on third-and-one last season. That ranked 20th in the league and that was worse than the 68 percent (17-for-25) they had on third-and-one in 2008.
Worse, the Bears were were 14-for-22 (63.6 percent) on runs on third-and-one and that ranked 23rd in the league.
Props are due for their effectiveness on fourth-and-one, though. They converted 7-of-9 (77.8 percent) to rank 11th in the league. The Bears were 4-for-4 on fourth-and-one runs, one of seven teams to be successful on all fourth-and-one carries. Miami (7), Cleveland (6), Atlanta (5), Buffalo and Oakland (3) and Cincinnati (2) were the others.
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Bears really lack a significant run blocker on the offensive line. They're built to pass block, which they really didn't do well either last season until Williams was moved to LT.
lol good comments!
Da Dumber than Rats!
Yeah, cause they kept running the same play..right up the middle lololol knowing they werent good at it and had no Oline worth a rats butt. Yeah. and somehow thats Cutler's fault too.
The center and guards are undersized and they put a right tackle at left guard......maybe the new offensive coaches will fix these problems.........MAYBE????????
I'll miss that 1 yard plunge play to Mckie on 4th & inches that failed all 5 times in 08'. They just kept running it. Hell even a dumb ass lab rat can open the door w/the cheeses & no zaps after getting zapped 2 or 3 times.
So Bears fans, keep blaming Cutler!!!!!
Yeah... this is breaking news!