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Cubs' leadoff quandary: Theriot or Fukudome?

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By Paul Sullivan

Ryan Theriot hasn't been anointed the Cubs' leadoff man in 2010, but manager Lou Piniella already has hinted he probably will get the nod.

"Look, we've got Theriot and (Kosuke) Fukudome, (who will) probably hit 1-2, somewhere in there," Piniella said recently.

Since there is no "somewhere in there" between one and two, the translation is Theriot and Fukudome will be 1-2, or vice-versa.

The only thing for sure is that Alfonso Soriano will not lead off, and that the Cubs need improvement in the leadoff spot after finishing 14th in the league with a .249 average in the one-hole.

VOTE: Pick your leadoff hitter.

Theriot figures to lead off against left-handers since Fukudome will sit. But the Cubs are so right-handed they'll probably face few lefties. So what to do against right-handers?

Going by numbers alone, Fukudome seems like a better fit.

Although he only had 161 at-bats in the leadoff spot last, Fukudome led all National League leadoff men with a .404 on-base percentage. He hit only .269 there, but still drew 30 walks. Theriot hit .283 in 173 at-bats in the leadoff spot, with a .354 on-base percentage and 27 strikeouts with 18 walks.

But the Cubs' lack of balance may force Piniella to bat Theriot first no matter what the numbers suggest. Batting one of only two left-handed hitting starters in the leadoff spot would give Piniella no balance whatsoever. Mike Fontenot would bat seventh if he starts at second, and if Jeff Baker plays second against some right-handers, Fukudome could be their only left-handed hitting position player.

"What are you gonna do?" Piniella said. "We tried to get left-handed. It didn't (work). We're just getting the best players we can, and that's it."

Soriano may be out of the leadoff spot, but the argument over who should take his place is only just beginning.

(Photos: Scott Strazzante and Phil Velasquez/Tribune)


18 Comments

kessingertobeckert on February 10, 2010 11:11 PM

Orlando Hudson's offensive stats leading just for leading off weren't any better than anyone currently on the Cubs. Johnny Damon has one of the worst arms in basebal and he and Soriano can't bopth be in left field. Sticking Blanco in the lead off spot or for that matter anyone that hasn't hit much before as your main plan is a recipe for disaster, a lot of pressure to start with and I've never heard that he's an outstanding base stealer (and no Lou Brock. Last year proved a good right hand hitter beats having poor lefthanded balance (righties see more right handed pitching and wouldn't be considered good hitters at all if they couldn't hit right handers). The truth is that there weren't a lot of great lead off options available this off season unless the Cubs were willing to trade off their best prospects. Hopefully someone like Fuld surprises, or a prospect develops quicker than expected, other than that maybe next years free agents might include someone reallyfast and able to get on base.

1908-20010 L

Blanco should start at SS. His defense more than offsets any offensive problems he may have. As an aside I believe if he played every day his hitting would improve. Remember hits taken away on defense are just as important as offense, something the Cubs have never understood.

Byrd had 80+ RBI's last year. When was the last time we had a cf with that many RBI's and HR's??????? I liked the pickup and believe that he is and will be a HUGE upgrade in center. let the guy play before you judge

Cubs won in 1983 with Derneir and Sandberg.
In 1989, it was Walton and Smith.
Speed can be a big part of a winning team.
Theriot is not a leadoff hitter.
I believe IF Blanco could be a surprise this season.
Castro is the future SS for the Cubs.
If the Cubs fall apart by June, watch Lee, Zambrano and Ramirez seeking trades.

Northside Neuman on February 10, 2010 8:36 PM

Wouldn't this article have made more sense prior to Orlando Hudson signing that 1 year, $5 million dollar deal with the Twins? I mean it's not like Hudson was a lead off guy, its not like he could play second base and hit left handed or right handed... I mean it's not like the Cubs have a dire need for a true second baseman who can lead off and switch hit.. It not like the Cubs needed any of those things for cheap.. Say $5 million dollars cheap for a one year contract that doesn’t tie the teams hands next season..

Nope, I guess Hendry figured we didn't need any of those things...

Does anyone else feel like their head is about to explode?

Fans who love the strike 'em out...throw 'em out play will love Theriot and Fukidome 1-2.

Fukudome in leadoff quandary?
Horry Cow!

By this logic, then Sam Fuld should leadoff cause he has a .400+ OBP too with better speed. Maybe we should've signed Thome to leadoff cause his lifetime OBP is .400+. Heck Milton Bradley had a .437 OBP in 2008, so give me break. Listen, the clown is a .250 hitter plain and simple. If Fukudome was a young center fielder making an average salary I'd consider it, but he's a right-fielder (a position where we need power and production) and he's making 12 million! Other than OBP, he put up nearly identical numbers from the previous season. So why is there this forgiving attitude all of a sudden? I think Bradley was so bad, it actually enhanced Fukudome's truly pathetic season. The Cubs paid through the teeth for a finished product with power, and are now stuck with a 33 year old clunker (insert Toyota joke here). Please, no more excuses. It's time to admit a mistake and get rid of him.

ProfessorGAC on February 10, 2010 6:36 PM

I think it should be Fukadome, unless he goes into a funk. If he starts a K binge, then they could try someone like The Riot, until Fuke gets back in a groove.

Fuke gets on base a lot, but he'd be a liability if he starts striking out. But, when he has his timing, his batting eye will start a lot of opportunities with someone on base for the heart of the order.

I'd say they should consider Fukadome as #1 with Theriot as insurance for a rainy day. (Metaphorically speaking, of course.)

If he is healthy, Soriano should lead off. Some pretty good managers thought that was where he belonged. Who would you listen to, Joe Torre or the sports talk radio blowhards.

We should have NEVER trade Lou BROCK!

Theriot aka Scrappy McGritterson should be nowhere near the top of the lineup, Fukudome did a great job in the leadoff hole and he's very patient and sees alot of pitches so he is our best option for the top spot. Theriot with his noodle arm and craptastic range at SS and his collection of Ed Hardy shirts need to get traded so we can have Castro patrol the SS position.

I agree with JB. Enough with the Reed Johnson stuff. He had one solid year when he was with the Cubs and one below average year. He seemed like a nice guy and was a grinder, but it's time to move on. I'd rather have Byrd in center than a combination of Reed and Fuld. Fuld will be the backup outfielder, which is where he should be at this point in his career. He's basically a younger version of Reed anyways.

With whom we currently have, Fukudome should lead off. Sure, he doesn't steal, but at least he's on base .404 percent of the time to start the game.

Arnold, how does "Fukudome led all National League leadoff men with a .404 on-base percentage" indicate that Fukudome doesn't get on base?

Cubs in 2108 on February 10, 2010 1:31 PM

You make good points JB. However, I wouldn't have minded seeing Fuld/Johnson split the CF duties and hold down the #8 spot in the order. Byrd is not an impact player and could very easily go Gary Matthews Jr. now that he is out of Texas. I would have preferred to see the money spent on him kept in Hendry's pocket for a possible mid-season need should the Cubs end up contending.

Pay no attention to Bob Locker. He either rides the shortbus to school or more likely he thinks he's funny so he writes stupid stuff all the time and hopes to get a comment or two directed at him. Ignore him and maybe he'll go away like Nada Surf finally did!

As for the "true leadoff hitter" comment, most teams in baseball would love a "true leadoff hitter" but very few actually have one. And when you do get one you likely have to overpay. See Chone Figgins to Seattle and Rafael Furcal to Los Angeles for two examples. Most of the time you have to either develop one on your own or make due with what you have. With that said, maybe Brett Jackson will become a good leadoff hitter in a few years. For now, I'd go with Theriot because he's faster than Fukudome and strikes out less.

Fukudome should not lead off, because he cannot get on base. Theriot canot lead off because he cannot steal or execute a hit and run. Andreas Blanco should start at second and lead off.

"Are the Cubs ever ever going to get a true lead-off hitter? I mean come on........."

"Although he only had 161 at-bats in the leadoff spot last, Fukudome led all National League leadoff men with a .404 on-base percentage"

I think that answers your question.

Stop it with the "wish we had Reed Johnson" crap. He bats righthanded, not left, so that doesn't help the lineup balance at all. And his OBP last year was .330, and it is .344 for his career. He is NOT a leadoff man. He is a fourth outfielder, at best, and will never be the difference between a championship team and a non-contender. Understand yet? Drop it already. Thank you.

Are the Cubs ever ever going to get a true lead-off hitter? I mean come on.........

Ryan Theriot sucks against RH-pitching, therefore he cannot be an everyday lead-off man, obviously.

He owns a .690 OPS against righties over the last 3 years, which is completely unacceptable batting first OR second.

Theriot is an 8-hole offensive player when a righty is on the mound (roughly 75% of the time).

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