By Phil Rogers
When Matt Holliday and John Lackey are the big fish, it's fair to say there will be no record hauls from the free-agent market this winter. There will be at least one trade with a bigger immediate impact than any signing -- Roy Halladay, once again being shopped by the Toronto Blue Jays.
Unlike last July, there's a belief that the Jays -- now led by Alex Anthopoulos, not J.P. Ricciardi -- will take the best offer they get and cut ties with, arguably, baseball's best pitcher. Here's how one National League executive described it to the Toronto Sun on Monday, the first day of GM meetings at the O'Hare Hilton: "I don't know where he's going or when he's going. But the former GM was looking for a bank heist, a lopsided trade to save his job. J.P. wanted an arm and two legs. Too much. For Alex, this will be easier. He's making a baseball deal.''
When Matt Holliday and John Lackey are the big fish, it's fair to say there will be no record hauls from the free-agent market this winter. There will be at least one trade with a bigger immediate impact than any signing -- Roy Halladay, once again being shopped by the Toronto Blue Jays.
Unlike last July, there's a belief that the Jays -- now led by Alex Anthopoulos, not J.P. Ricciardi -- will take the best offer they get and cut ties with, arguably, baseball's best pitcher. Here's how one National League executive described it to the Toronto Sun on Monday, the first day of GM meetings at the O'Hare Hilton: "I don't know where he's going or when he's going. But the former GM was looking for a bank heist, a lopsided trade to save his job. J.P. wanted an arm and two legs. Too much. For Alex, this will be easier. He's making a baseball deal.''
When a big name like Halladay is available at the same time that White
Sox GM Ken Williams is breathing, it's hard to ignore the possibility
that something could be happening beneath the surface. Williams is
saying he's set with starting pitching and has very little money to
spend but does that mean he won't talk to Toronto's rookie GM about his
inventory of parts? I doubt it.
The usual suspects -- Yankees, Angels, Phillies, maybe the Red Sox (although there are reports Halladay would block a deal to Boston) -- are circling Halladay. But, assuming the Blue Jays like Tyler Flowers, the White Sox are as well positioned to put together a package to get Halladay as anyone.
Williams could offer a young, proven starting pitcher -- Gavin Floyd or John Danks -- a top catching prospect -- Flowers -- and maybe even a shortstop -- Alexei Ramirez, whom Williams insists "is going to do nothing but get better'' -- along with another minor-league prospect or two.
I wouldn't do a deal like this, not with Jake Peavy and Mark Buehrle already in a starting rotation that is six deep. But even if he can only have them together for one year, wouldn't Williams love to have Halladay, Peavy, Buehrle, Danks/Floyd, Freddy Garcia and Daniel Hudson on the same staff? What if Toronto would be so happy about the return that it would take back Scott Linebrink, freeing up $10.5 million over the next two years?
Just wondering.
Some other Central-istic thoughts as the meetings head into Day Two:
-- Agent Scott Boras wasn't on hand Monday but could be Tuesday. His primary mission this off-season is getting a huge deal for Holliday, which is bad news for the Cardinals. They would love to re-sign him to keep a second big bat in the lineup but that doesn't look too likely. The word is that Boras believes Holliday should get a bigger deal than the one the Cubs gave Alfonso Soriano three years ago -- eight years, $136 million. There's no way the Cardinals can entertain anything in that range, not unless they view Holliday as the long-term keeper, not Albert Pujols.
When will the Cubs deal with the Derrek Lee question? He's entering the last year of hs five-year, $65-million contract, which has some teams asking about him. But the Cubs would have to get blown away to even think about asking Lee to waive his no-trade rights, and that's not going to happen. Look for Jim Hendry to explore a contract extension at some point, although probably not until spring training. That's his preferred window for talking contract. The Cubs signed Lee to a three-year, $28.5-million deal in February, 2004, and did the five-year contract in April, 2006.
The Twins loved what they got from Orlando Cabrera after the mid-season trade that brought him to Minnesota but had not explored an extension before trading for J.J. Hardy last week. This doesn't mean they won't still talk to Cabrera, however. They view Nick Punto as a likely 2010 regular at either third or second base and are looking for one infielder. A Twins source said they are considering Cabrera as a second baseman, assuming he's willing to make the switch. They loved his influence on players like Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez down the stretch last season. The Twins, also looking for starting pitching, will make Justin Morneau happy by exploring free agent Rich Harden. They played together growing up.
The Brewers, in search of starting pitching, will almost certainly talk to the Atlanta Braves. They came to Chicago looking to move one of their starting pitchers (probably Javier Vazquez or Kenshin Kawakami) for a hitter. Kawakami could be especially interesting, as he's owed only $13.3 million over two years.
The usual suspects -- Yankees, Angels, Phillies, maybe the Red Sox (although there are reports Halladay would block a deal to Boston) -- are circling Halladay. But, assuming the Blue Jays like Tyler Flowers, the White Sox are as well positioned to put together a package to get Halladay as anyone.
Williams could offer a young, proven starting pitcher -- Gavin Floyd or John Danks -- a top catching prospect -- Flowers -- and maybe even a shortstop -- Alexei Ramirez, whom Williams insists "is going to do nothing but get better'' -- along with another minor-league prospect or two.
I wouldn't do a deal like this, not with Jake Peavy and Mark Buehrle already in a starting rotation that is six deep. But even if he can only have them together for one year, wouldn't Williams love to have Halladay, Peavy, Buehrle, Danks/Floyd, Freddy Garcia and Daniel Hudson on the same staff? What if Toronto would be so happy about the return that it would take back Scott Linebrink, freeing up $10.5 million over the next two years?
Just wondering.
Some other Central-istic thoughts as the meetings head into Day Two:
-- Agent Scott Boras wasn't on hand Monday but could be Tuesday. His primary mission this off-season is getting a huge deal for Holliday, which is bad news for the Cardinals. They would love to re-sign him to keep a second big bat in the lineup but that doesn't look too likely. The word is that Boras believes Holliday should get a bigger deal than the one the Cubs gave Alfonso Soriano three years ago -- eight years, $136 million. There's no way the Cardinals can entertain anything in that range, not unless they view Holliday as the long-term keeper, not Albert Pujols.
When will the Cubs deal with the Derrek Lee question? He's entering the last year of hs five-year, $65-million contract, which has some teams asking about him. But the Cubs would have to get blown away to even think about asking Lee to waive his no-trade rights, and that's not going to happen. Look for Jim Hendry to explore a contract extension at some point, although probably not until spring training. That's his preferred window for talking contract. The Cubs signed Lee to a three-year, $28.5-million deal in February, 2004, and did the five-year contract in April, 2006.
The Twins loved what they got from Orlando Cabrera after the mid-season trade that brought him to Minnesota but had not explored an extension before trading for J.J. Hardy last week. This doesn't mean they won't still talk to Cabrera, however. They view Nick Punto as a likely 2010 regular at either third or second base and are looking for one infielder. A Twins source said they are considering Cabrera as a second baseman, assuming he's willing to make the switch. They loved his influence on players like Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez down the stretch last season. The Twins, also looking for starting pitching, will make Justin Morneau happy by exploring free agent Rich Harden. They played together growing up.
The Brewers, in search of starting pitching, will almost certainly talk to the Atlanta Braves. They came to Chicago looking to move one of their starting pitchers (probably Javier Vazquez or Kenshin Kawakami) for a hitter. Kawakami could be especially interesting, as he's owed only $13.3 million over two years.
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Lee has a no trade clause in his contract so unless those trade offers are coming from the Angels or the Giants don't expect D-Lee to waive the clause. Plus platooning players at a major offensive position like first base generally doesn't work out well. And let's not forget, Lee had a pretty good year last year. He was as close to 2005 Lee as he's been since then. Hoffpauir and Fox combined will not give you the same punch as Lee did last year and the entire infield defense will get worse too. Not only will you see more errors from first, but you will probably see more errors from Ramirez and Theriot on bad throws that are not being saved by Lee.
If their getting decent offers for Lee they should try and get some prospects for him in a trade. Platoon Fox and Hoffpauir at 1st and make some hay in this free agent market! Reports are that their will be another glut of non-tendered free agents this off season because of the economy, if they can free up additional salary by trading Lee and moving Bradley and Miles, do it and restock the pantry.
Sign Orlando Cabrerra for two years and play him at SS until Castro is ready, move Theriot to 2nd. Platoon Fox and Hoffpauir at 1st, RF, pinch hitter, etc.. Look for a center fielder who can be had for two years like maybe Mike Cameron until Nick Jackson or Colvin is ready to take over the position?
Build short term while lowering contract liabilities. They have several prospects coming up that look like they might be keepers, lets position the team to take advantage of a bad economy. Also 2011 is going to have a ton of free agent 1st basemen (Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Gonzalez), lets get in a position to trade or sign one long term.
I agree that Jim Henry has to go. Jim Henry is just awful. And while we're at it, we should bring back Kerry Woods to the team. Woods was one of the best and Henry just let him go. So to sum up, fire Henry, bring back Woods. Do that and the Cub will bring a World Series championship back to Wrigley Stadium for us and the new owner Tommy Ricket!
Rogers, you're an idiot. Every time you write about baseball, my head hurts more and more. Halladay has been on record as saying he WOULD waive his clause to go to Boston. He wants to win a ring. Soon. And aren't you the same guy who said (before Sosa was outed for testing positive) that you would just hold your nose and put him in the Hall of Fame?! What is the matter with you!!???! The Tribune actually lets you write about baseball?! A man who has never even tried to understand a more comprehensive statistical analysis of the game, embracing numbers like ISO, OBP, BABIP and WAR? You bashed the Jim Thome-Paul Konerko-Jermaine Dye Era on the South Side as not being 'exciting' enough. Yeah, all those home runs, and those 2 division titles, and that World Championship...those weren't exciting. 2 days later, you lamented the power the Sox have lost now without Dye and Thome. That's not all. In the first column, the bashing of all that power, you then suggested that the Sox could trade Konerko.
So, wait, all that power they had wasn't exciting enough, so you want to trade the remaining power threat guy, but then the Sox lineup has too many questions. WHAT?!!?! Why are you so inconsistent and do you know nothing of baseball?!!?!?!
trade suggestions:
Bradley for Michael Young swap contracts cubs get lengthier contract but get quality on defense and offense and also lose cancer
Jenks and Tyler Flowers for Carl Crawford maybe another player as rays need catcher and DH along with closer this fits their needs sox get left handed power with super speed for top of order and relative youth if rays prefer viciedo thats okay too maybe trade Paulie to pay for long term crawford contract sox need speed kenny appears to still not make it enough of a priority
Cubs should try to trade prospects for Alexei Gonzalez and trade Lee for a closer and prospects if possible Cubs need RBI guy who feasts on righties but doesnt wilt in the post season gonzo might be that guy