Never mind that the free-agent signing period hasn't yet begun. Nor that it will be more than a month until any significant free agents sign and maybe two months until the market starts to get picked bare. It's never too early for speculation.
So on the morning that general managers gather near O'Hare to unofficially open hot-stove season, here is some free-agent matchmaking, courtesy of Tim Dierkes at mlbtraderumors.com.
Dierkes ranks the top 50 free agents and tries to guess where they'll wind up. He has Chicago teams winding up with only one apiece off his list.
37. Billy Wagner - Cubs. The Cubs don't have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer. Then again, they wouldn't do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season. The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves. Even Wagner's old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.
My take: The Sox could use Guerrero or another RBI guy to lessen the load on Paul Konerko, the often-injured Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham. But Williams seems to want a left-handed hitter and will steer away from base-clogging types, like Guerrero. Wagner makes sense for the Cubs only they've had enough of Carlos Marmol. He did a solid job as the closer once Lou Piniella gave him the job. I'd stick with him for 2010. But he would have some trade value. Wagner will want to close wherever he goes, so to have him and Marmol in the same bullpen isn't a good idea.
Here are Dierkes' top five free agents:
1. Matt Holliday - Mets. The Mets could grab headlines by signing Holliday to a six or seven-year deal for more than $100MM.
2. John Lackey - Yankees. Last winter's strategy of signing the best two starters and the best hitter available contributed to the Yankees' World Series title. With rotation question marks after C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, it makes sense that the Yanks will pursue the best available starter in Lackey.
3. Jason Bay - Red Sox. It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay. That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.
4. Chone Figgins - Angels. The Angels have internal options at third base, but he'd be hard to let go after a career-high .395 OBP and excellent defense at the hot corner.
5. Randy Wolf - Mets. The Mets regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf a year ago. As the best available starter aside from Lackey, Wolf is primed to get a three-year deal worth more than $30MM.
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The Cubs getting Wagner would duplicate the Soriano and Bradley mistakes.
Wagner has passed his prime.
"Wagner makes sense for the Cubs only they've had enough of Carlos Marmol. He did a solid job as the closer once Lou Piniella gave him the job. I'd stick with him for 2010. But he would have some trade value."
Does any of this make sense to anyone else? Did Phil forget to add an "if" in there?
Also... Marmol would have SOME trade value??? Give me a break! He's probably one of the most valuable bull pen pieces in the entire majors!! He had a ton of walks but still dominated in batting average against with a .170 average!
If he gets his walks under control again, he'd be the most dominate closer since Mariano Rivera.